Description

This analysis provides a forecast of DIA prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 0.323579 0.353955 0.386976 0.425726 0.470191 0.519906 0.580099
2025-03-30 0.286462 0.325405 0.370114 0.425800 0.494097 0.576200 0.684052
2025-04-06 0.258646 0.302230 0.354389 0.422459 0.510568 0.623147 0.782001
2025-04-13 0.231416 0.276187 0.331475 0.406286 0.507359 0.643117 0.846697
2025-04-20 0.216685 0.263839 0.323847 0.407962 0.526581 0.694296 0.962615
2025-04-27 0.203880 0.252565 0.316157 0.408128 0.542945 0.742869 1.083260
2025-05-04 0.192680 0.242317 0.308662 0.407340 0.557206 0.789597 1.209870
2025-05-11 0.184013 0.234694 0.303915 0.409658 0.575876 0.845336 1.363838
2025-05-18 0.171932 0.221477 0.290196 0.397211 0.569723 0.858833 1.442362
2025-05-25 0.160416 0.208329 0.275628 0.382118 0.557453 0.859737 1.495861
2025-06-01 0.154440 0.202660 0.271496 0.382697 0.570943 0.908007 1.659125
2025-06-08 0.151978 0.201841 0.274380 0.394458 0.604613 0.998783 1.943377
2025-06-15 0.147636 0.198175 0.272945 0.399477 0.627804 1.075161 2.226124
2025-06-22 0.142758 0.193412 0.269465 0.400703 0.644118 1.140538 2.507151
2025-06-29 0.137484 0.187754 0.264193 0.398357 0.653303 1.192329 2.772788
2025-07-06 0.130024 0.178396 0.252503 0.383891 0.637216 1.184703 2.854533
2025-07-13 0.126505 0.174949 0.250117 0.385709 0.653813 1.256078 3.229169
2025-07-20 0.122937 0.171240 0.247065 0.386032 0.667328 1.322847 3.627221
2025-07-27 0.119432 0.167461 0.243666 0.385410 0.678734 1.386780 4.056765
2025-08-03 0.116679 0.164743 0.241873 0.387621 0.696507 1.471583 4.638983
2025-08-10 0.111656 0.158176 0.233233 0.376145 0.682550 1.466241 4.802696
2025-08-17 0.106480 0.151189 0.223594 0.362186 0.661735 1.438245 4.842396
2025-08-24 0.104088 0.148640 0.221472 0.362738 0.674379 1.510574 5.471164